Who emerges from a crowded Big 12?

The season is just a couple of months away and there is no better time than now to look at the Power Five conferences as people want to start really dialing in on what to expect for the upcoming season.

The Big 12 is going to have a one-year configuration with teams coming in and teams that are departing, not departing yet.

TCU made it all the way to the national championship game this past season and that is as far as anyone wants to talk about things as we all know how that game went.

Join us for the College Football Playbook podcast with Marc Givler and Tyler Shoemaker as they start their conference previews with the Big 12. There is plenty to talk about and even a little betting advice.

We also have a transcript but we have run it through a computer AI program so it may not be the cleanest of all transcripts but it will give you the highlights if you are looking for something specific in the show.

Marc Givler: Hello everyone. Welcome to the College Football Playbook podcast. I’m Marc Givler. Got Tyler Shoemaker with me as usual. We are what, maybe eight Saturdays I think away from college football starting. We are getting close to the season and so I thought this would be a good time to. Kind of go through and do some conference previews as we hit media days here in a few weeks.

Marc Givler: We’ll ha we’ll start to have the first conference Media days here in the middle of July. So we are right on the doorstep of football season. Tyler here has been working really hard on his spreadsheets for the season. The, the T shoe index is is complete at least for, at least for the preseason.

Marc Givler: And we’re gonna go over some of those numbers here. But first of all, I mean, we’re gonna do the big 12 in this episode. Did anything surprise you Tyler, when you went through and kind of punched your numbers in and, and they spit things back out at you?

Tyler Shoemaker: So I wasn’t surprised at the top, you know, to see Texas at number one in, in the conference.

Tyler Shoemaker: But what did surprise me was. They’re number one by almost eight full points, I mean of, you know, over a touchdown better than than number two. And then what really jumped out to me is you look at number 2, 3, 4, and five, and they’re separated by a point. So it’s, it’s extremely tight. I actually have the Big 12 as the number two overall conference in terms of average power rating because.

Tyler Shoemaker: I mean, WVU is ranked last, but they’re only a minus 0.8, so they’re basically one point worse than the FBS average team. Everybody else in the conference is above average. So I mean, it’s, it’s a very sturdy conference with only one kind of what I would consider true playoff, you know, national championship contender in Texas, but, but very solid conference from top to bottom.

Marc Givler: And just kind of refresh everyone’s memory. You know, you don’t have to give the whole formula away or anything like that, but, you know, this index you put together the TSI what all kind of goes into that and kind of how do you, how do you arrive at some of these numbers?

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, so the, the preseason numbers, you know, just generally are much harder because you don’t have any currencies data to go off of, obviously.

Tyler Shoemaker: So the, the challenge that I kind of put on myself for, for this upcoming season that I haven’t done in seasons past that I think has, has cost me and has cost other people like me that, that do models. I had to find a way. I really spent a lot of time thinking about how to quantify and reward teams that develop really well, even though they don’t recruit at an elite level.

Tyler Shoemaker: And conversely, Penalized teams like, I mean, even Texas, for example, who recruits excellently, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to a high power rating or, you know, or winning, winning football on the field. So I spent a lot of time, a lot of trial and error going through different formulas and variations of that, and I feel pretty comfortable with, with where I landed.

Tyler Shoemaker: And I’m excited to see kind of how it plays out because to, to get back to your original question, what goes into it is, How you’ve performed in, in recent seasons. According to the TSI model , I’ve gone back and, and modeled out the last, the last decade of football. I’m gonna go back even further, but for right now, I, I looked at the last decade, obviously looked at the past couple of seasons, way more closely.

Tyler Shoemaker: As well as, did you have any coaching changes? Kind of, I wanted to get an idea of how each coach and program has performed relative to their talent which is kind of a baseline expectation of how good your team should be. So I was able to quantify that and put that into into a number and that that’s how we landed on the preseason TSI right now.

Marc Givler: Yeah, I think what surprised you Also surprised me. I. Which is that I was surprised to see, not necessarily see Texas one, although maybe, but just the gap to me Texas has for all of its talent, has not been the dominant force in that conference that they probably should be where I guess was the strength here.

Marc Givler: How, how were they so far ahead? What kind of, where were the metrics? You know, that that gave them such a high power ranking.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, for, for starters, their, their four year weighted recruiting ranking, which is kind of how I look at your baseline talent. I, I look at the last four years weight, those according to kind of what I’ve learned is, is most important in terms of which classes are more important.

Tyler Shoemaker: So Texas right now is number seven in the country in terms of their recruiting rankings. So that’s, that’s a good baseline. But Oklahoma is right, is one spot below them in the rankings at at number eight. So the difference is Oklahoma, especially like last year, did not perform well relative to the talent on their team.

Tyler Shoemaker: Mostly because they were in year, year one, you know, of a, of a new regime. So I did give Oklahoma a little bit of benefit of the doubt going into this season. But Texas you know, they have steadily under Sark their, their correlation as I like to say, between their talent and their power rating has, has slowly crept up, even though they haven’t really met expectations publicly.

Tyler Shoemaker: Their, their numbers have incrementally been climbing, so I, I gave them a bit of a an optimistic projection here for 2023 based on those trends.

Marc Givler: Yeah, I think, I think it’s clear they have the most talent on paper. I mean, we can go down the, the line here, you know, starting at quarterback with, with Quinn Ewers and you know, they’ve got receivers. They’ve got a great tight end. So I, I’m. High on their talent level. It’s just, you know, I, I was kind of in the boat of like, when they hired Sark I was like, well, did you hire, you know, usually when you make a coaching hire, you are going from kind of one end to the other on the spectrum.

Marc Givler: Like you go from, you know, if you’ve got like this hard-nosed coach, you probably bring in like a. A more laid back guy and vice versa. If you got a laid back guy and you know, the culture kinda gets away, you bring in someone who’s gonna, you know, kick ass and take names. When they hired Sark , I thought they hired Tom Herman Light.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, that’s, that’s a, a very good comparison

Marc Givler: Like there’s a, anything bad you wanna say about Tom Herman, you can apply to Sark and I, I would argue Herman’s been a more successful coach especially as a head coach. So I, I’m still just not sold there. And I’m, I’m curious like, Did, did any of that factor in as far as their power rating?

Marc Givler: You kind of mentioned, you know, do they, do they overperform or underperform? I’m, I’m guessing there was an underperform that maybe held them back even more on this, cuz but you’re projecting ’em like 10 wins.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I mean they, they could have been higher certainly, and for all, for all the reasons you said, you know, is, is why they landed where they landed.

Tyler Shoemaker: But I will, you know, for people that aren’t familiar with, with. TSI or, or even like SP plus or FEI you don’t get rewarded necessarily for wins and you don’t get punished necessarily for losses, you know, depending on how you played in the, in those games. So I think the thing with Texas last year, when you just look at their wins and losses, it was like, man, they, they lost, you know, more games than you would think.

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I think they went eight and four last year. I don’t have in front of me, I think they went eight and four. But a lot of those games were, were very, very close. So the, the numbers within the, obviously like win loss is the most important in terms of on the field, but in terms of a power rating exercise and trying to be predictive moving forward, we kind of have to look between the lines and see like how those, how the teams actually performed.

Tyler Shoemaker: Because football is a game of, of variance and, and a lot of luck is involved. So the power rating aspect of it, Actually really liked Texas last year even. I mean, even after they were racking up their third and fourth losses. I mean, I, I remember they were still kind of around my top 10 and, and I was kind of catching some heat for it on Twitter.

Tyler Shoemaker: Like, well, how do you have this team in the top 10? Like, but that’s why, because it’s not just about wins and losses necessarily.

Marc Givler: And, you know, looking at their schedule here, I’ll just kind of reel it off home Rice. At Alabama Home Wyoming at Baylor Home, Kansas neutral, Oklahoma at Houston home, BYU home, Kansas State at tcu, at Iowa State Home Texas Tech.

Marc Givler: So, and you know, to be fair to you the Vegas. Over under, I’m seeing on win total for Texas is nine and a half and you’ve got ’em at nine seven. So you’re, you’re right there on that, on Vegas’s number. So here’s a question. You’re at nine seven, Vegas is at nine five. Is that too close to suggest a bet on the over, is that a stay away number for you?

Tyler Shoemaker: It is when you, when you just look at that, when you just look at like how the mask shakes out. I’ve got them at 9.7. I haven’t done this exercise, but what I would do if, you know, if you’re a Texas fan or, or someone that’s like, Hey, I think Texas is, is gonna go over this. I need some more data to, to kind of back up my opinion.

Tyler Shoemaker: What I would do is I would go to their schedule breakdown, which I have on my, on my TSI sheet, which you can find on Twitter.

Marc Givler: I would put it description box too.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I would, I would go to their schedule breakdown because what I’ve done is I’ve, I’ve done every, I’ve done a projection for every single game, for every team, all season with a win probability.

Tyler Shoemaker: And what I would do in that instance is I would look at it and say, okay, well how many of these games do they have a 75% chance or more of winning? And if that number gets you close to that, to that Vegas over under, then, then that’s what would push me, push me to, to make an over bet . But if it’s. If, if it’s, they’re gonna win a bunch of close games like that, that’s more of a, a roll the dice, I think.

Marc Givler: And, you know, I’m kind of like quickly looking at the schedule here and it does feel like it sets up decently well. Especially in conference like Kansas State’s a tough place to play. They don’t have to go there. BYU Is not a very easy place to play. They don’t have to go there. You know, Oklahoma’s always a neutral field.

Marc Givler: They lose to Texas Tech last year, but they’re getting ’em at home. You know, I, I maybe, you know, roadblocks at Iowa State’s, kind of a sneaky one there after you just were, after you just get through Kansas State and TCU back to back then you go to Iowa State. Matt Campbell for me is the Pat Fitzgerald of. The Big 12, whenever the expectations are a nine or 10 win team, they flop. And whenever nobody is talking about them and have kind of written the program off as, as not a contender anymore, they come out and win eight or nine games and they’re like, well, where’d I come from? So that could be a, a sneaky, tough game.

Marc Givler: As I look at this, as much as I like, am not like sold on Sark at this point. It, it. It’s a schedule that does set up really well, I think for the over as, as long as they don’t just completely, you know, trip over themselves. Because I think here’s the dirty little secret, and this will be a different podcast episode and get a bunch of people riled up probably and, and put myself at risk for being on freezing cold takes.

Marc Givler: But I don’t think Alabama’s gonna be very good this year by their standards. Like I don’t think. I could totally see Alabama losing three plus games this year, like three, maybe four. Worst case. But like I think Alabama’s gonna lose three games this year. You’re getting them early. Yes, it’s on the road, but they’ve got a whole bunch of stuff they’re breaking in.

Marc Givler: So for me, I think the, the Texas bet, the over under comes down to do they beat Alabama at the beginning? If they beat Alabama on the road at the beginning of the season? They’re in great shape, I think, to, to get the over for people.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. I, I just, I just took a quick peek while you were talking and basically looking at their win probabilities, there’s nine games where they’re 75% win probability or better.

Tyler Shoemaker: So it comes down to do they win one of TCU, Baylor or Alabama? If they win one of those games, they go over the win total. If they take care of business in those games where they’re 75% chance or better. So that’s kind of how you have to look at those things. Yeah.

Marc Givler: Let’s throw these back up here real quick.

Marc Givler: Kansas State, I thought was, was in line with what I would be thinking. I, I really like that program. I like the direction they’re going. You know, tcu, that’s kind of fascinating. Against maybe all odds. We kind of Yep. Kept saying they were gonna lose last year and we were wrong until the very end. But You play the national championship game and you’re picked fifth in your league.

Marc Givler: You know, you’re essentially picked fifth in your league, like by the slimmest of margins, but just behind a U C F team joining the league. Where did TCU falter for you as you kind of put that one together?

Tyler Shoemaker: TCU was, was very difficult because, They, their program hasn’t necessarily like overachieved from a talent standpoint, you know, relative to their talent.

Tyler Shoemaker: But last year was just so great and, and it was in the first year of a coach and Sonny Dykes, so I did give them, honestly, their rating could have been much lower based on. Where like taking like an average of how the last few years have gone for them in terms of their talent to power rating correlation.

Tyler Shoemaker: But because Sonny Dykes did such a good job, I went back and looked, he did such a good job in that, in that metric for me when he was at SMU and then it translated so well last year. That I’m, I gave TCU some benefit of the doubt here. I’ve got them 32nd in, in talent but with a, with a really high development rating.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I’m, I’m, this is basically a vote of confidence in Sonny Dykes to, you know, not necessarily replicate what he did last year. Cause I think that’d be very difficult. But, but can, can keep the ship, you know, kind of going in the right direction here.

Marc Givler: And here’s kind of a. Essentially a line graph of how the power ratings came out.

Marc Givler: You know, Oklahoma’s an interesting one too. They, they kind of bombed last year. It felt like they were starting to play a little better toward the end. How did you arrive at that one? And so it’s clear your model is projecting them to, to start back up on the upswing with a second year coach.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah again, I, I gave, I gave some benefit of the doubt to what I think Brent Venables can be once he gets it rolling there.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I did kind of go back and look at kinda what Oklahoma has been, you know, in its peak years, and then looked at what it did last year and then kind of found myself somewhere in the middle of that. Like, I don’t think they’re gonna be peak Oklahoma, you know, under Lincoln Riley this year, but I do think they’ll be better than last year.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I, I think they’re. Pretty appropriate, appropriately rated, even if it was, you know, one of the trickier ones for for me to, to formulate.

Marc Givler: How far has West Virginia fallen as a program in the last maybe decade ish? I mean, you got ’em last, you got all the. You got all the non-power five schools that moved into the league ahead of ’em.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. They’re for, for such a passionate fan base it’s, it’s probably gonna be, gonna be a rough season for them. I, I would imagine this season is the nail and the coffin of head coach Neil Brown.

Marc Givler: Yeah. Four wins would be a whole lot of not good. Another, another program like Oklahoma State, six wins.

Marc Givler: This was not that long ago that they were winning nine, 10 games every year.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yep.

Marc Givler: Gosh. So that, that was another one that kind of like, it didn’t really shock me in, in the, in the sense that, oh, I think it’s wrong. It just was like a, like wow. Yeah. Oklahoma State. Yeah. Stock down right now. Here’s what I’ll say about T C U, just kind of for me, from covering recruiting.

Marc Givler: They’ve got a lot more juice now with recruits than they did two years ago.

Tyler Shoemaker: That’s interesting.

Marc Givler: That’s a school that a lot of kids even in, in Texas are looking at. They just got a really, really good quarterback in 2025. Ty Hawkins was just committed there this past week. He’s a, like a, a, a mid to high four star type of kid.

Marc Givler: He’s a really good player. So. We’ll be interested to kinda go back and look at this in a couple of years cuz if, if they can actually sustain, maybe not what they did last year, but if they can sustain some level of, of moderate success, your talent level ratings are going to go up for them in the next couple of years because they are starting to recruit better.

Tyler Shoemaker: So how much. How much of that do you think is, is Sonny Dykes related? Cuz I, I feel like he’s just done a good job. I mean, like I said, even, even at SMU he, he got some talent there and they, and they won a lot of games.

Marc Givler: Yeah. I think a lot of it is Sonny Dykes related. Just, he, it’s, it’s a fun offense I think for a lot of guys to, to play in.

Marc Givler: And of course like the, the playoff run last year is huge, but that’s also. That also goes back to Sonny Dykes who got them. Right, right. Yeah, it’s, it’s definitely been a huge uptick. He’s kind of a little more relatable. You know, Gary Patterson I thought was a good coach, but I don’t know that he was a particularly dynamic recruiter. He’s kind of a, a Chip Kelly type of head coach in that regard, where you better have really good as recruiters around them as assistants. So that was, I. You know, Dykes I think is a little more in the, in the, the front, you know, kind of leading the pack when it comes to recruiting.

Marc Givler: So yeah, I’ve got TCU stock up, I’ve got Kansas State stock up it. This is a big year for Oklahoma. I, I didn’t love the fit. And it kind of goes back to what I talked about kind of at the beginning of the show a little bit, is you went from like offensive, like. Guru, you know, high flying offense you know, a little bit of Hollywood, a little bit of, you know, I don’t know, flash, and you go from that.

Marc Givler: To, you know, career defensive coordinator, old school guy, toughness. And there’s nothing necessarily wrong with that, but that is quite a transition to make. And sometimes it, it sometimes is best, even if the personalities are different, to maybe keep a similar. Face of the program. So maybe go and try and find the next Lincoln Riley instead of kind of going polar opposite.

Marc Givler: So I’m gonna be fascinated that one, I, I was a kind of a strange hire to me at the time, much like Texas was to me for different reasons. But you know, We’ll see how it goes. You know, Texas was, was firing a coach, Oklahoma was losing a coach. It’s kind of a different scenario, I think, I think when you’re, when you’re firing a coach, I think it, it does make a little more sense to kind of go in a different direction than what you had been going in, obviously.

Marc Givler: But when you’re, when you lose a coach, cuz he decides to leave and he’s been very successful. It, it is not usually, it doesn’t seem bad to me to maybe kind of stick with that. And, and quite frankly, I, I just. In today’s landscape with offense. I, I do think having an offensive minded head coach is, is a, is a general advantage, but yep.

Marc Givler: Now Kirby Smart’s gonna laugh at me and Nick Saban’s gonna laugh at me. But I think if you’re, if you’re at, you know, if you’re at Oklahoma, if you’re in the, the Big 12, if you’re in basically any other league than maybe the SEC which is. Somehow still able to survive on kind of being a defense first league.

Marc Givler: Although even that’s changing too with, with, we’ve seen Nick Saban kind of wake up on, on offensive philosophy, philosophy and things like that. And Georgia last year was, was a much better offense. Yep. But you know, I don’t know. I, I think there’s, it was a weird hire, let’s just put it that way.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yep.

Marc Givler: Anything else here as far as, you know, tidbits? I mean, you’ve got, so you got UCF up there. That’s gonna be an interesting one to me. What, what, how did you arrive at that and was, was it difficult with the, with the league change?

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. It, it was I’m looking, I’ve got them 53rd in, in the country, in, in talent, but I mean, they’ve, they’ve just performed so well, even relative to that, you know, looking back several years, so.

Tyler Shoemaker: They, they’re kind of a program that gets the benefit of the doubt until they prove that they don’t deserve it. And again, what, you know, one thing that really sets the TSI model apart from others is I’m much more quickly adapting to the on-field results than you know, other high profile models.

Tyler Shoemaker: Because basically, if some of these other models say that you’re a, a bad team in the preseason, like that’s kind of a death sentence for the se for their, for their season rating because they keep those preseason ratings in there the whole season, you know, to some extent. Whereas with mine, I, I generally will have mine completely phased out by, by the middle of the season.

Marc Givler: I’m trying. So here’s the, here’s the Vegas total, and this could be very different at different places, but Vegas has over six and a half wins, but it is – 170 . For UCF . So it, do you, would you endorse the over here or is this something maybe to stay away from just because of the league change and talent?

Marc Givler: Yeah, well, possible talent discrepancies.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, yeah, those, those reasons. And also, like, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t lay 170 juice to, to bet the over here. I honestly, I would just, If, if you can, some books will let you, like, buy a half a game . If you can do, do that I’m sorry, not buy, but, but basically sell a half a game and just take the higher number here and, and get better odds.

Tyler Shoemaker: Or just wait. I mean, if it’s juiced at 170 the number’s probably gonna go up at some point, so I would just wait until you catch a seven at, at, you know, – 110 or – 120 or something like that. More, more standard odds there. But yeah, I would, I would be interested in an UCF over.

Marc Givler: Do you have a favorite play as far as over under win totals in this conference? Is there a, is there one that jumps out to you?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, not off the top of my head. Let me, let me get back to you on that one.

Marc Givler: Yeah, no, no problem. I, man, I’m always talking myself into Texas. I. That’s kind of an interesting one for me, just cuz again, I’m, I’m a little skeptical of Alabama this year.

Marc Givler: I, I, I just, man, I don’t know, they lost so much and I don’t like what they did in the portal with the quarterback. I don’t think they solved their quarterback issue. So that’s gonna be, Ty that’s gonna be an interesting one for me. Let me see what Kansas State is here. For over under wind total, cuz that’s one.

Marc Givler: I think if I can get the right number, I’d be interested in playing. That one looks like seven and a half, but you’re given like 188 juice. Let me see what let me see what bet Online’s saying. There’s a, I should have brought this up a minute ago and then I could have had it ready.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I see, I see a WVU five and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: I would, I would definitely be interested in an in under there. Again, again, pretty much with, with season wind totals, I’m not gonna lay any more than like 140 or 150 juice probably.

Marc Givler: Okay. That’s a good rule of thumb

Tyler Shoemaker: so I would just keep that in mind, like I’m, I’m not gonna lay 170 or 180. I’ll just wait for, for the number to move, but yeah, I would be interested in a, in a WVU under five and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: Again, you can get u UCF over I like Houston is, is one of the, the more valuable o over bets on, on the board for, for any conference, let alone the, the big 12. So there, yeah, there’s a, there’s a couple of plays here that that I probably will invest in here before the end of the summer.

Marc Givler: And it’s interesting cause I just look at BET online and they’ve got Kansas State at over under eight is is eight and a half and over is + 120 juice.

Marc Givler: So, so under is – 150 and they come out of the gates with Southeast Missouri and Troy. Then they’re at Missouri home, UCF at Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech. So, They get TCU at home. They get Houston and Baylor at home. They get Iowa State at home. Tough Road one at Kansas. Looks like they don’t play Oklahoma.

Marc Givler: I, I like Kansas. I, I think there’s value there + 120 . I think there’s actually some value there in Kansas State over eight and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, with, with, with the projection so close, getting, getting positive money, I would, I would’ve to plug it in. I’ve got a calculator where you can kind of see what, what that would equate to in terms of like an actual number.

Tyler Shoemaker: But yeah, that, that’s probably right in the neighborhood.

Marc Givler: Yeah. All right. We see what your numbers are projecting here, but you know, you don’t always have to follow the numbers necessarily. Who is your pick to win the big 12 this year?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I do think it’s gonna be Texas. I, I, I think, I think this is probably the year that they kind of put it together.

Tyler Shoemaker: Second, second year. Quinn, Ewers at quarterback. I, if it’s not now, then like, when is it ever gonna be? So I think, I think this has to be their year. So I’m, I’m gonna, I’m gonna go with Longhorns.

Marc Givler: I have to begrudgingly agree. I, what do you do if they go eight and four this year? If you’re Texas

Tyler Shoemaker: fire your coach for starters.

Marc Givler: Are you pulling the plug again on that?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I, I think you have to

Marc Givler: another coaching search.

Tyler Shoemaker: I think you have to, I don’t know. I don’t know how you, you run it back knowing. I, Quinn, Ewers is probably entering the draft this year. Like, I don’t, I don’t,

Marc Givler: Ja’Tavion Sanders might be a first round pick.

Marc Givler: at Tight end. Xavier worthy might be a first round pick a receiver.

Tyler Shoemaker: Mean, I know you got, you got Arch Manning ,

Marc Givler: you have more athletes, on defense than these other teams you’re playing for the most part. Other than like Alabama. I mean,

Tyler Shoemaker: mean even, even, I mean, I think eight and four definitely is, is a fireable season nine and three.

Tyler Shoemaker: Which, which means you’re, so that’s like you’re probably losing Alabama and then you lose two conference games and, and you’re not even in the conference championship game. Like, I, I think that’s a fireable offense with, with the expectations that they’ve just continuously had every preseason. Like if you, if you don’t, if you don’t go 10 and two or better, so, you know, one conference loss will say a lost Bama.

Tyler Shoemaker: Like, I think, I think that’s the floor for, for Sark to keep his job. If, if I was running things anyway.

Marc Givler: And we’ll kind of wrap it up with one more hot seat conversation like Matt Campbell. That’s an interesting one. They’ve, it feels like they’ve plateaued, maybe even taken a step or two back. What do you do if he goes like five and seven this year?

Marc Givler: And loses to Iowa and you know, and it’s just a mess. I mean, it’s just such a conundrum for me because I thought they moved on from Paul Rhodes awfully quick back in the day. And you know, I think it’s hard to win there, but I know. Should his seat be warm or is he just, you know, Bringing a knife to a gunfight every weekend.

Marc Givler: And, and you, you, you give him the Pat Fitzgerald treatment, you know, at Northwestern, where, you know you’re gonna eat a four and eight every now and then, but he’s gonna overachieve as well at certain points.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, here’s the thing I just looked. This is gonna be Iowa State’s most talented team. I’m looking back to, to

Marc Givler: by the rankings,

Tyler Shoemaker: right so this is gonna be their most talented team. Of the last five years. So there’s, there’s no reason they should go five and seven. So I think, I think if that happens, it’s hard because they’re, the program expectations just are not what they are at, like, like at Texas. So maybe they do have their Pat Fitzgerald and they’re just gonna let him have as many losing seasons as he wants cuz he had a couple good ones.

Tyler Shoemaker: But there, there’s no reason that if he can have really good seasons, you know, that he’s had. You know, in, in recent years that he can’t do that again this year with, with more talent. So I don’t, I don’t think he would necessarily be on the hot seat, but I, I personally would not be on the Matt Campbell bandwagon.

Tyler Shoemaker: If he has another bad year,

Marc Givler: guess what? He over under is in Vegas right now for wins for Iowa State.

Tyler Shoemaker: I don’t have it in front of me. What is it? Yeah, guess six and a half,

Marc Givler: five and a half. I just looked it up before I even said anything about going five and seven or after I said about going five and seven. I’m like, let me look and see what Vegas thinks. They’re five and a half now. It’s – 140 for the over.

Marc Givler: What’s your limit on juice for these bets? Cause you said you wouldn’t, you would never do – 170, is – 140 . Are we getting close to where, especially if you think, you know, six and six. That’s all I gotta do is go six and six, win half their games.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I mean, it would, it would definitely depend on the edge.

Tyler Shoemaker: So in this instance their over under is five and a half. I’ve got ’em at, at 6.7.

Marc Givler: So you’ve got ’em way over.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. So I and and what’d you say the juice was on this one? 140?

Tyler Shoemaker: I would, I wouldn’t like bet my mortgage on it or anything, which we’ll talk about bankroll management at some point this season.

Tyler Shoemaker: But you know, I, I would maybe throw something small on it. Sure.

Marc Givler: You could probably what? Bump it up to six, but then it’s like, eh,

Marc Givler: you’re probably, yeah.

Tyler Shoemaker: Honestly, as six. As six, you’re probably getting, I don’t know, maybe even odds at that. Yeah.

Tyler Shoemaker: At that point. So then they gotta

Marc Givler: go, you know, obviously they gotta go seven and five at that point, or, yeah, not you can push.

Marc Givler: I mean, they play gosh. They play what? Northern Iowa here. They’re at Ohio U, Kansas, at home. At Cincinnati, they got TCU U in Texas. They got Oklahoma. The conference schedule’s not easy. They didn’t dodge a lot of bullets there at Baylor, at B Y U at Kansas State. Those are tough road environments at Oklahoma.

Marc Givler: Oh buddy, Matt Campbell. So Matt Campbell and, and Sark . Big years for those two. I’m sure we’ll be talking more about the Big 12 and weekly odds and things like that, but just kind of wanted to run over some preseason numbers, give some of our thoughts on what the. What the TSI is telling us, and just kind of match that up with maybe what our eyeballs and brains are trying to, to tell us.

Marc Givler: So we’ll be back with another episode here. We’re gonna do, like I said, we’re gonna do all five power conferences here over the next week or so. And then I think we’ll try and sneak in maybe like a a group, group of five or whatever episode and just. That’ll probably be a little disjointed, but we’ll just maybe pick some, some teams we like and some, some bets we like for that.

Marc Givler: But appreciate everyone watching and listening. Like I said, link the description box to the T-Shoe index and the schedule projections. So if you’re looking to bet on the over unders for win totals this season Tyler’s got a, a model that. Projects out everything, and you can kind of look at it and, and see and help, you know, maybe make some decisions for you.

Marc Givler: So appreciate everyone listening. We will catch you again very soon. I think we’re doing SEC up next, so stay tuned for that one.