Ten Best For The Weekend – Week Three

TBFTW Week Zero

Waaahhh … it’s not a good week of college football.


Shut up.

It that’s you, I bet you’re the type of person who goes to an Applebee’s, orders an app and an entree, eats it all, and then complains about the food and service, looking to get your money back. Then when you do, you base your tip off of the price of the check you paid, which was nothing.

Then you look at your server and say, “What’s 18% of nothing?”

And then add in a “Don’t spend it all in one place,” as you are walking out the door.

You are the worst.

If you can’t handle Applebee’s at its worst, then you don’t deserve Applebee’s at its best.

And yeah, I’m talking about the bottomless riblet basket of week four.

Go mow your lawn instead, loser.

Anyway, here are the 10 best games this week with 10 adequate bets for you right along with them.

Saturday September 16

No. 3 Florida State (2-0) at Boston College (1-1) (+24.5) | 12:00 pm | ABC

The last time Boston College beat Florida State as an underdog was in 2017 when they defeated the Seminoles 35-3 as 5.5-point dogs. That was a much different Florida State program back then. That was before the transfer portal saved their program from obscurity. Like finding a priceless work of art at a thrift store. Others had no doubt seen FSU on the shelves before, dismissing it as a Taggart. But Mike Norvell knew that he was looking at an authentic piece from Jimbo Fisher, it just needed to be verified and touched up. Sure, the market is hit and miss with Fisher works, but if you can find his earlier stuff, it could be a good investment. His newer stuff, however, is just a money grab.

No. 7 Penn State (2-0) at Illinois (1-1) (+14.5) | 12:00 pm | FOX

Everybody knows that the last time these two teams met, the game went nine overtimes. Illinois won that game 20-18. What many people forget about that game was that the Nittany Lions were 24-point favorites. Look, we’re not going to get another nine overtimes in this one, so stop hoping for it. Set your sights on eight overtimes, and if they hit nine, then just consider it a bonus. Penn State has the top scoring offense in the Big Ten. They’re running the ball for 230 yards per game, and they’re still not yet as effective as they could be. That’s good news for Penn State and bad news for everybody else. Illinois has the worst defense in the Big Ten right now, and their offense isn’t consistent enough to cover it up. Still, I’m not touching any kind of line that involves James Franklin vs. Bret Bielema. (1) But I will take PSU quarterback Drew Allar +247.5 yards passing and (2) Nittany Lion running back Kaytron Allen over 62.5 yards rushing.

No. 14 LSU (1-1) at Mississippi State (2-0) (+10) | 12:00 pm | ESPN

LSU is one of the ranked road favorites against non-pushovers this week. There are going to be some upsets, but it would probably be too hilarious for it to happen here. With playoff hopes, LSU isn’t going to start the season 1-2, right? The Bulldogs’ defense has been soft to this point, so I like the Tigers being able to move the ball. Quarterback Jayden Daniels should have a good day. The SEC West is completely up for grabs, and LSU may actually be the favorites right now. When people talk about how “bad” weeks of college football turn into the craziest weeks, it’s games like this that make it happen. (3) Let’s take those points and clanga clanga clanga all the way to the window. As a related aside, cow bells are greatly discouraged at sports books. But if you don’t mind being tased, have at it. And since we’re already at the window, let’s parlay the +10 with LSU receiver Brian Thomas posting over 56.5 yards receiving.

No. 15 Kansas State (2-0) at Missouri (2-0) (+3.5) | 12:00 pm | SECN

The line has dropped a bit over the last couple of days, which has me concerned about my patented Seven-Star, Gold Pipe Lock of the Week of (4) Kansas State -3.5. Heck, I liked the Wildcats when it was -5, but the drop does concern me. Mizzou can’t run the ball right now — averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee. Granted, it’s not like Kansas State has played anybody to this point, tallying their wins against Southeast Missouri and Troy. But we always pretty much know who Kansas State is. They’re like a sitcom dad. They’ve been played by many different actors, and the vast majority of them are buffoonish, but with a heart of gold. That’s Kansas State. They may be dumb at times, but by the end of the game, you’re like, “I wish that was my dad.”

South Carolina (1-1) at No. 1 Georgia (2-0) (-27.5) | 3:30 pm | CBS

South Carolina can’t run the ball right now, which is not good news for them as they head to Georgia. The Gamecocks are going to put their entire game plan on quarterback Spencer Rattler’s shoulders. Since South Carolina last stole a win at No. 4 Georgia in 2019, the Bulldogs have beaten the Gamecocks 45-16, 40-13, and 48-7. They may still not be over that loss, so don’t be shocked by another 40-something to less than 20-something. Georgia’s not running the ball all that well yet, so maybe there is a hope that South Carolina can keep it within four touchdowns. Even if they can’t, (5) I like Rattler being able to throw for over 204.5 yards in this one. He’s averaging 349.5 yards passing per game, and he should get plenty of attempts, especially in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota (2-0) at No. 20 North Carolina (2-0) (-7.5) | 3:30 pm | ESPN

Minnesota is scoring 19 points per game, which is not the kind of offense that you want to take on the road against a ranked opponent. The good news, however, is that you can always count on the North Carolina defense for help. They’re like the Red Cross for offenses in need. After only giving up 17 points to South Carolina in a 31-17 win to start the season, UNC went to the wire with Appalachian State before winning 40-34 last week. Even with North Carolina’s help, I don’t see the Gophers scoring more than a couple of touchdowns. (6) I think UNC has enough defense to lay the 7.5 points. Let’s also parlay that with over 32.5 yards rushing for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, but under 265.5 yards passing.

No. 8 Washington (2-0) at Michigan State (2-0) (+16.5) | 5:00 pm | Peacock

Washington is leading the nation in passing, averaging 472 yards per game though the air. Quarterback Michael Penix has thrown for 450 and 409 yards in his two games this year. I don’t know if he’ll get to 400 yards in this one, but he could if they want to. I have no idea how Michigan State is going to look in this game. There is so much going on off the field for the Spartans right now that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fight is already gone this year. But even if the fight is still there, is the defense? They’ve shut down both of their opponents this year, but they’ve played an AAU team from an Amish league and the weird guys from across the hall, half of whom are exchange students from France. If MSU quarterback Noah Kim can have the game of his life, maybe this is a shootout for three quarters. (7) Washington -16.5 seems like it makes sense to me.

No. 11 Tennessee (2-0) at Florida (1-1) (+6.5) | 7:00 pm | ESPN

This used to be one of college football’s best rivalries. Now it’s just one of Tennessee’s best rivalries. That’s not bad, I guess. And like I always say, ‘if it’s still cool in Pigeon Forge, then it’s still cool to me.’ Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton can throw a football 100 yards, but he’s averaging under 7 yards per pass attempt this season. During an actual game, he would need to throw 15 passes to reach those 100 yards. Why aren’t we seeing any stories about that? He has a big arm, but can only complete small passes. Like owning a tank but you can only use it to parallel park. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is actually listed higher on the SEC pass efficiency leaderboard than Milton. I just hope this battle of former Big Ten quarterbacks lives up to the hype. Of course, it shouldn’t be difficult since there isn’t actually any hype to live up to. (8) And that’s just about all the reason I need to take Florida +6.5 here.

BYU (2-0) at Arkansas (2-0) (-8.5) | 7:30 pm | ESPN2

Everybody always talks about the difficulty in playing at elevation in places like Utah or Colorado, but nobody talks about the culture shock of going from Utah to Arkansas. It can be incredibly difficult to handle. Fortunately the BYU players have had weeks to prepare. Plus they all have Rosetta Stone accounts to learn the language. That preparation probably won’t win them this game, however. The offense has been bad, and Arkansas right now is giving up just 1.4 yards per carry. The Razorbacks haven’t faced anybody worth note, however, so their defense is currently inflated like a mylar balloon, but much less shiny. Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson hasn’t been great yet, but he’s been effective at times. It’s like using a rooster as a clock. You won’t know what time of day or night it is most of the time, but the one time per day he lets you know, you’ll really know. (9) Arkansas feels like a safe pick here, so go ahead and lay the points and rest easy until KJ Jefferson tells you what time it is.

Colorado State (0-1) at No. 18 Colorado (2-0) (-23.5) | 10:00 pm | ESPN

Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell went and made this very personal rivalry game personal when he insinuated that he was more of a grown up than Colorado head coach Deion Sanders. And we all know the best way to show how mature you are is by bragging about your maturity. “My mom says I’m mature for my age.” “That’s great, but the question was ‘Where do you see yourself at this company in five years?'” I do like that Deion thought that this was what made the game personal. It’s not quite on the level of the time Ohio State athletic director Andy Geiger was interviewing Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti as a possible replacement for John Cooper and legend has it that Bellotti asked if the Buckeyes had to play Michigan every year. But at least with Bellotti there was awareness of a rivalry. Buffs quarterback Shadeur Sanders is putting up big numbers (451 yards passing per game), but he has been getting hit a ton. He’s been sacked 11 times in two games, and hit even more than that. I haven’t seen a father actively trying to destroy his son this badly since Darth Vader. And just like in that battle, (10) I’m taking the younger Jedi (to throw for more than 338.5 yards). Colorado State has only played once this season, but they gave up 466 yards passing to Washington State.