At first glance, that number sounds wild. But in today’s college football, maybe it isn’t.

Why the Big Ten is pushing this

The Big Ten’s idea isn’t really about chaos — it’s about access. With 18 teams now in the league and more national-caliber programs than ever, the conference believes too many worthy teams are being shut out by a small playoff field.

Under a 24-team format:

• More teams would still be playing for something meaningful in November

• Fewer seasons would feel “wasted” after one early loss

• Fans would get more playoff games on campuses — the best atmosphere in sports

In a world where Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, USC, and Washington all exist in the same league, a four- or even 12-team playoff can feel outdated. Heck, after two straight seasons of being a College Football Playoff participant, Indiana deserves to be included in the discussion about the nation’s elite college football programs.

Why other leagues are hesitant

Here’s the problem: not everyone sees the sport the way the Big Ten does.

The SEC, ACC, and Big 12 are far more comfortable with 16 teams than 24. To them, 24 feels like:

• Too many games

• Too much risk of watering down the regular season

• Too big of a logistical and financial leap

They worry that if almost everyone gets in, then classic matchups — Alabama vs. Georgia, Ohio State vs. Michigan — lose some of their urgency.

The real fight isn’t 12 vs. 24 — it’s control

This debate isn’t just about numbers. It’s about who gets to shape the future of college football.

The Big Ten and the SEC now dominate TV revenue, brand power, and playoff résumés. A bigger playoff benefits the Big Ten especially, because its schedule is brutal and deep. A 24-team format protects teams that survive that grind with two or three losses — teams that would often be good enough to win it all.

Smaller leagues worry that a huge field would turn the playoff into a power-conference invitational.

So… will 24 teams ever happen?

Not soon — but don’t laugh it off. My skepticism about the “internal” nature of this plan is that Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti gave this information to Pete Thamel, knowing that it would create a small firestorm of conversation and discussion.

A 16-team playoff feels like the next step. But once that door opens, it’s hard to close it. Television networks, especially Fox, will want more games. Fans will want more chances. And conferences like the Big Ten will keep pointing out how many top-15 teams get left home every year.

24 teams might sound crazy today. Five years ago, so did 12.

And that’s why the Big Ten’s idea matters — even if it doesn’t win right now.

The post The 24-Team CFP Is Coming… Maybe appeared first on Saturday Glory.

Big 12 Commissioner Brian Yormark came out swinging at the conference’s media day on Tuesday.

During his introductory press conference at The Star in Frisco, Texas, Yormark shared some strong opinions about the Big 12 heading into the 2025 football season.

“I believe the Big 12 will be the deepest football conference in America,” Yormark said. “No league offers the competitive balance that we do. Last season the Big 12 led the nation in fourth quarter lead changes and go-ahead scores in the final minute of conference games.”

Yormark also highlighted the Big 12’s star power entering the 2025 season, especially at the quarterback position.

“The Big 12 returns nine starting quarterbacks who threw for over 2,400 yards last season,” Yormark said. “The rest of the power-four combined have just 11.”

Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt, Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht and TCU quarterback Josh Hoover headline the Big 12 as key returners to their respective teams.

Leavitt — who led Arizona State to a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff appearance last year — totaled 3,328 offensive yards and 29 touchdowns. Leavitt was already named the conference’s preseason Offensive Player of the Year on Monday.

In addition, Becht is coming off a junior season in which he eclipsed 3,823 yards and 33 touchdowns for the Cyclones, followed by Hoover, who garnered 3,930 yards of offense and 31 touchdowns for the Horned Frogs.

In Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah’s debut season in the conference — and the Big 12’s first season with 16 teams — Arizona State, Colorado, Iowa State and BYU each finished with a 7–2 conference record.

Even with the overall success, the Big 12’s only team in the College Football Playoff was Arizona State, which had an automatic bid from its conference championship win.

Despite the Sun Devils’ double overtime loss to Texas in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Yormark is confident this season’s playoffs will feature more teams from the Big 12.

“I expect the Big 12 to earn multiple College Football Playoff bids this year,” Yormark asserted.

On top of the returning talent and star power, Yormark pointed to the conference’s coaches who will help push the Big 12 to new heights.

“We also boast one of the nation’s top coaching lineups, from Hall of Famers to rising stars,” he said.

The post Commissioner Brian Yormark believes Big 12 is poised for dominance in 2025 appeared first on Saturday Glory.

With Big 12 media day Tuesday and Wednesday, Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt and Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez were honored with preseason awards by the conference on Monday.

Leavitt — a redshirt sophomore — was named the Big 12 2025 preseason Offensive Player of the Year, while Rodriguez — a senior — was dubbed the conference’s preseason Defensive Player of the Year.

Leavitt transferred to Arizona State after redshirting in his freshman season at Michigan State. In his first full season with the Sun Devils, Leavitt led Arizona State to a Big 12 title in the program’s first season in the conference.

Leavitt finished his first season in Tempe, Arizona, as the school’s new record holder for most total yards by a freshman with 3,328. He threw for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions in 13 games.

Jacob Rodriguez, on the other hand, led Texas Tech’s defense in 2024 with a team-high 127 total tackles, five sacks and 10.5 tackles for a loss. At season’s end, Rodriguez was named to the All-Big 12 first team by conference coaches and the Associated Press.

After losing an overtime heartbreaker to Texas in the first round of the College Football Playoff last year, Leavitt seeks to lead Arizona State to the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez serves as a vital piece of consistent leadership on the Red Raiders, who are bringing in the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country.

In addition to Leavitt and Rodriguez, Utah junior quarterback Devon Dampier was chosen as the Big 12’s preseason Newcomer of the Year. 

The full All-Big 12 team is below. Texas Tech and Iowa State each lead the conference with three selections each.

Preseason All-Conference Team (Offense)

Quarterback: Sam Leavitt, Arizona State, Redshirt Sophomore

Running Back: Bryson Washington, Baylor, Redshirt Sophomore

Running Back: Jahiem White, West Virginia, Junior

Fullback/Halfback: Will Swanson, Kansas State, Senior

Wide Receiver: Eric McAlister, TCU, Senior

Wide Receiver: Chase Roberts, BYU, Redshirt Senior

Wide Receiver: Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State, Redshirt Junior

Tight End: Joe Royer, Cincinnati, Redshirt Senior

Offensive Lineman: Ben Coleman, Arizona State, Graduate

Offensive Lineman: Spencer Fano, Utah, Junior

Offensive Lineman: Bryce Foster, Kansas, Redshirt Junior

Offensive Lineman: Caleb Lomu, Utah, Redshirt Sophomore

Offensive Lineman: Jordan Seaton, Colorado, Sophomore

Place Kicker: Will Ferrin, BYU, Redshirt Senior

Punt Returner/Kick Returner: Josh Cameron, Baylor, Redshirt Senior

Preseason All-Conference Team (Defense)

Defensive Lineman: David Bailey, Texas Tech, Senior

Defensive Lineman: Dontay Corleone, Cincinnati, Redshirt Senior

Defensive Lineman: C.J. Fite, Arizona State, Junior

Defensive Lineman: Lee Hunter, Texas Tech, Senior

Defensive Lineman: Domonique Orange, Iowa State, Senior

Linebacker: Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech, Senior

Linebacker: Austin Romaine, Kansas State, Junior

Linebacker: Keaton Thomas, Baylor, Redshirt Junior

Defensive Back: Xavion Alford, Arizona State, Redshirt Senior

Defensive Back: Bud Clark, TCU, Senior

Defensive Back: Jeremiah Cooper, Iowa State, Senior

Defensive Back: DJ McKinney, Colorado, Junior

Defensive Back: Jontez Williams, Iowa State, Redshirt Junior

Punter: Palmer Williams, Baylor, Junior

The post Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez awarded preseason Big 12 honors appeared first on Saturday Glory.

Five-star offensive line prospect Felix Ojo put on a Texas Longhorns hat on Friday as the crowd in attendance screamed in excitement.

But Ojo took the hat off and tried to calm the crowd down.

Twenty seconds later, he made a historic announcement while picking up a hat from underneath the table.

Ojo, the No. 5 prospect in the 2026 recruiting class, committed to Texas Tech over Ohio State, Texas, Florida and Michigan and will receive a blockbuster fully guaranteed revenue-sharing contract with the Red Raiders, a three-year, $5.1 million deal, according to multiple reports.

“A new ERA of CFB is coming either jump on the train or get left behind,” Felix Ojo told Rivals’ Hayes Fawcett.

Ojo’s contract is higher than fellow offensive lineman Jackson Cantwell’s deal with Miami and is one of the richest revenue-sharing deals under the federal settlement, which was approved June 6, which allows programs to directly pay their athletes.

Ojo’s pledge also makes history for Texas Tech as he’s now the highest-rated recruit the program has ever landed. At 6-foot-7, 285 pounds, Ojo is the No. 4 offensive tackle and second-best recruit from Texas in the class with legitimate potential to play on Sundays for a long time.

Ojo was a multi-year starter at Lake Ridge High School in Mansfield, Texas, and will head roughly 350 miles west to Lubbock, Texas.

For the Red Raiders — who are looking to contend in the Big 12 this season —they’ve significantly improved their roster this offseason after an 8-5 record in 2024. Texas Tech has the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country, only behind the LSU Tigers.

The post Five-star offensive lineman Felix Ojo picks Texas Tech in stunning commitment appeared first on Saturday Glory.

Just how long does that process take? That’s the topic of today’s episode of The Daily Huddle.

The post When Do Conference Realignment Changes Begin to Feel Real? appeared first on Saturday Glory.

TCU and Southern Methodist University will pause their rivalry series after the two play one another in 2025, according to multiple reports. 

According to Brett McMurphy of Action Network, TCU is indefinitely “pausing” its series with the Mustangs after the 2025 game. The two programs have played each other for 102 years, or since 1915. 

Chris Vannini of The Athletic confirmed reports of the impending pause of the series. 

The Horned Frogs hold a 51-41-7 advantage over SMU in the Iron Skillet Rivalry. The Mustangs and TCU have split the past two matchups between one another, with the latter gaining victory 42-34 last season after Horned Frogs Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Max Duggan threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns. 

TCU is part of a Big 12 Conference that has been active in conference realignment over the past several weeks. Arizona, Arizona State and Utah are set to join the conference in 2024 as well as Colorado, and all four programs announced those plans in late July. 

SMU has been involved in expansion discussions, particularly about the possibility of joining the Atlantic Coast Conference from the American Athletic Conference. 

The post Reports: SMU, TCU will pause series after 2025 season  appeared first on Saturday Glory.

According to Jason Scheer of WildcatAuthority.com, Big 12 Conference commissioner Brett Yormark met with media and said that expansion among the conference “is over for now.” 

The Big 12, in the past four weeks, has added Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah from the Pac-12 Conference. The Pac-12 has been left with four member programs: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State. 

The additions to the Big 12 will bring the conference to 16 member schools in 2024. Yormark told reporters that the conference has “reached their goal,” according to Scheer. 

Among the next focus and steps taken for Yormark and the Big 12 will be “integrating the new schools” and “figuring out scheduling,” according to Scheer. 

The Big 12 reportedly had discussions and determined it wouldn’t add also Oregon State or San Diego State of the Mountain West Conference. 

The Pac-12, on the other hand, is left searching for options. Yormark and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff reportedly met over the phone where the former told the latter he was sorry that the Big 12’s “gain is your loss.” 

One pathway that the Mountain West is reportedly “receptive” to is a possible merger between the two conferences. 

The post Reports: Big 12 expansion is ‘over for now’ with goals met  appeared first on Saturday Glory.

The topics ranged from expansion, NIL, depth charts, and a whole bunch more. Here are the most interesting things each of the seven head coaches who spoke on Wednesday had to say.

Dave Aranda – Baylor

On the recent passing of his father Paul: “I went and saw my dad when I first heard that he had cancer, and my dad and I have always – it’s always been a great relationship. He was never really someone that would say openly, ‘I love you.’ I always knew that he did, though.

“I remember when he called me and told me that he had pancreatic cancer and it was stage 4, I told him that I loved him and he didn’t say it back. I don’t know if he heard me. So I wanted to go and say it to him face to face. I was able to do that. He gave me a big hug. I don’t know, when you’re hugging and everything, you feel like, hey, this is a good hug, and he wouldn’t let me go, and he kept [holding] really strong and he told me that he loved me. I’m so glad that we had that moment because I know a lot of folks don’t have that.”

Kalani Sitake – BYU

On the adjustment of moving to a conference from being an Independent: “I mean, I’ve been through this before, and so have our offensive coordinator and our defensive coordinator when we were at Utah. So we went through that transition from Mountain West Conference team to the Pac-12, and I’ve also seen other teams that have made the transition. Like you look at TCU and what they’ve done.

“There’s information and things that you can see that are out there that people that have done it before, and what you try to do is you try to do what they did well and then lean on the experiences. I know we’re at BYU so it’s a little bit different and unique, but I need to find ways to turn that uniqueness into a strength for us and make sure it’s a competitive advantage when we get on the field.”

Dana Holgorsen – Houston

On the current quarterback battle between Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith and sophomore Lucas Coley: “Yeah, it’s funny, I was talking with Case Keenum the other day, and I asked him about competition. Back when we were here in 2008, Blake Joseph and Case Keenum were battling back and forth. I asked him the importance of when you name a starter, and he goes, ‘I wouldn’t. Just let them compete, because if they compete, it makes them better, and then it should take care of itself.’

“I’m not concerned with it right now. They’ve been 50/50, and we knew they were going to be 50/50, and they’re going to continue to be 50/50 until one just makes it clear. So I think that’s going to naturally take care of itself. I’m a big proponent of letting kids compete.”

Lance Leipold – Kansas

On starting quarterback Jalon Daniels and his gradual return to full health and what he brings to the program: “He’s making all the throws, everything that we need him to be. I think the one thing we sometimes forget about Jalon and everything he brings to our program, he’s an Academic All-American. What we put on his plate and what we ask him to do and whether it be just things in our offense, retaining the information, verbalizing it back to others, getting others lined up, I think he does an outstanding job.

“As we know, everybody has had a chance to see when he’s healthy what he does as a dual-threat quarterback. I think the other thing is his leadership abilities, his charisma. He’s a guy that doesn’t get too high or too low. Again, I’ve said it from the start when he burned his redshirt our first year, he’s a special man and a special individual.”

Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State

On if he would entertain playing Oklahoma in a non-conference game when the Sooners leave the Big XII after this season: “No. We have nine conference games scheduled, and then we have, I think, through 15 years, we’re scheduled all the way up, and we’re full for the most part, and we have Power Five teams. I’m going to go back to what I said earlier. Oklahoma State is not going to change what we do because Oklahoma chose to go to the SEC. They need to change what they do because they’re the ones that made their mind up to go to the SEC.

“So with all the talk from administration and people saying that Oklahoma State needs to do this and that, all Oklahoma had to do was not go to the SEC. So it is what it is. We can cut right to the chase. For me, I want to listen to the board. I’ll listen to the president. I’ll listen to the AD if that’s something they want to do. I’m good. But I don’t think it’s going to happen based on the way the scheduling is. Everybody needs to realize, it didn’t have to happen if they didn’t change leagues.”

Sonny Dykes – TCU

On the process of hiring Kendall Briles as TCU’s offensive coordinator and the due diligence he did regarding the decision: “You know, you go back and you look at kind of what happened at Baylor. I was a young head coach when those things were happening, and so I followed it.

“I had worked with Art prior at Texas Tech as an assistant and knew him a long time as a high school coach. The thing that I always try to do is learn from situations. So when all that happened at Baylor, the thing I tried to do was, okay, let’s make sure this never happens in my program, and how can I go about doing that, how can I learn from mistakes that were made. I think that we all want to do that.

“I think that colleges across the board, whether it’s Title IX, reporting, everything has gotten better because of what occurred there. I did a lot of homework in that, and I talked to a lot of people that were directly involved in that situation to learn from it, and that was a number of years ago, and then had a chance to see guys move on from there and see how they did, if they had any issues that plagued them moving forward. Certainly all of those things were things I considered when I hired Kendall.

“I knew it was going to be an unpopular hire in some ways because of some things that had happened, but at the same time, I was very confident from knowing Kendall from the time he was 13 years old and just talking to people that were directly involved in that situation. There was a tremendous amount of due diligence. A number of years ago when I was at SMU I did a lot of due diligence, as well, talked to a lot of people that were directly involved at Baylor and saw it and tried to learn from those mistakes, and then obviously as we got down the road hiring him. I feel really good about the hire.”

Steve Sarkisian – Texas

How does this team compare to his first team now that he is in Year Three with a couple of his own recruiting classes on the roster: “Yeah, something that in my opinion we’ve got now going into year three is I think we’ve got really quality competitive depth on our roster across the board. That our players know when they go to practice every day, the guy in the same line as them, whether he’s behind them or in front of them, is probably as equally talented as him, if not better.

“So now how do I continue to work to strive to be motivated to continue to get better, because I think when you’re surrounded by like-minded people, that’s what pushes you to become even better. Then ultimately when you go to practice, that the guy lining up across from you is a quality player and a quality opponent, and so again, that’s pushing you to be the best that you can be but that you do it out of respect.

“I was talking to the team earlier today about how proud I am of the culture they’ve developed. It’s one thing for me to come in and have an idea of a culture and what I want it to look like and for them to buy into it. It’s another to not just buy into it but to elevate it. I think that’s what they’ve done. This team is different. They have a different look in their eye. They look different on the hoof.”

The post The Most Interesting Things Heard On Day One At Big XII Media Days appeared first on Saturday Glory.

Why is that?

Because July is the month that the Power Five conferences all hold their annual media days and things get started off this week with the Big 12, or should we say the “Bigger 12” as the conference welcomes four new teams and is in the final year with both Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC will be on its own stage the following week in Nashville with its annual media days and plenty of questions if Georgia can repeat again, if Kirby Smart has overtaken Nick Saban as the top coach currently in the game and so much more.

The Pac-12 will do its conference media days in just one day in Las Vegas the end of the week with no shortage of topics as the league looks to lock down its media rights deal for the future and prepares to say goodbye to USC and UCLA after this season.

And then the Big Ten and ACC take the stage the following week with the B1G in Indianapolis and the ACC in Charlotte. Each league will have plenty of issues to tend to as the Big Ten still is rumored to have an eye towards expansion and potentially the ACC while the ACC looks to hold on to its Grant of Rights, even if some of its member institutions are less than thrilled with things.

We will have coverage of each of the events but what are some of the major storylines for each league going into their media days?

There will be plenty of time to dive into who the top players and teams in each league are but with so much more going on as the world of college football sees the pieces get arranged and then rearranged, what are we most looking forward to seeing and finding out?

Big 12 Conference

• Four new teams join the league, who will stand the tallest as BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF all join the league? Three of these teams have come over after successful runs in the AAC, but how steep with the learning curve be? BYU is coming over from independent status, will it be a smooth transition back into conference play?

• This is a final year for Texas and Oklahoma in the league. Many feels that this is Texas’ year to win the conference but with one eye on the SEC in 2024, can the Horns keep focus after many years of being “back” only to come up short? Can Oklahoma surprise the establishment as Brent Venables has found the road as a head coach to be a little bit more difficult than being a coordinator?

• With new entries and departures, how will the rest of the league react? TCU won the league and went all the way to the championship game before running into a UGA buzz saw. Can the Horned Frogs follow that up with another league title? Kansas State is being considered a darkhorse to win the league, can the Wildcats of Manhattan (Kan.) shock the world in the final year of this league’s current membership?

Southeastern Conference

• Georgia is coming in with back-to-back national championships and appear to be the betting favorite for 2023. With Stetson Bennett and others moving on, what will it take for UGA to reload and continue its dominance? Is there a downside to having a weak schedule?

• Alabama also has to replace a highly-decorated quarterback with the loss of Bryce Young. Will Tyler Buchner be able to step into a room after transferring from Notre Dame, even with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees well aware of his work with the Fighting Irish? Is there enough offense left in this ride to carry the Tide across the finish line?

• LSU is the team that everyone wants to see as Brian Kelly enters a new season with the Tigers. LSU quietly went 10-4 last season, 6-2 in the SEC West, where can improvements come from?

• After the shocking passing of Mike Leach, how does Mississippi State react going into this new season?

• Lane Kiffin has said plenty in his time with Ole Miss, will this be the year that they show results in an ultra competitive SEC West?

• Texas A&M came into the SEC with plenty of pomp and circumstance, but Jimbo Fisher’s teams have just not fared quite as well as one would expect. With plenty of NIL spending, will the Aggies finally see a return on the investment of others?

• Tennessee was a darling last season but with Joe Milton at the quarterback position, can the Vols have the same high-flying offense that they did last season or will the defensive have to make major strides to keep this team competitive?

Pac 12 Conference

• Deion Sanders. That’s the entry. It should be must-watch TV to see what Primetime will say after taking over the Colorado job and being tasked with taking a team that has been an afterthought for many years and turning the Buffs into a contender.

• The media rights deal. Sure, this probably should have been bullet point number one, but that just goes to show how large of a shadow Deion casts. It seems somewhat questionable if a deal will be in place prior to the event, is one presented to the world at the one-day event? Is it enough to quiet the whispers of discontent from many league members including Colorado, Arizona and others?

• Short-timers USC and UCLA will be in the final year with the Pac-12 before moving over to the Big Ten. Lincoln Riley had USC in the College Football Playoff mix right up until the last moment before the defense failed the Trojans. UCLA had a quiet 9-4 season but it appears that Chip Kelly has things headed in the right direction. How are each team regarded with just one season to go by their soon-to-be former conference mates?

• Washington and Oregon will say all the right things but as they are constantly identified as teams that would like to jump conferences, is anything spoken or misspoken at this event that could fuel the fires of conference realignment more?

• Caleb Williams is the defending Heisman winner and it is well known that there has been only one repeat winner. How does he prepare for this upcoming season and can he breakthrough to do something that was only accomplished in the 1970s? And will he have any swear words on his fingernails?

Atlantic Coast Conference

• Is the current Grant of Rights deal as airtight as some attorneys are saying? Is there a number of teams that would have to attempt to leave the league to change the outlook of things? With ESPN cutting back its spending, could the network in an attempt to save some money look to step into this entire mess?
• Is Clemson back? Yes, Clemson went 8-0 in league play last year but the Tigers didn’t really feel like they were at the same level as other CFP contenders. Could a move outside of Dabo Swinney’s circle on the coaching staff pay off big dividends as many expect the Tigers to rule the league once again?
• Drake May at UNC is right there in the Heisman mix but the Tar Heels have not been able to parlay some top players into a league title in football. Is UNC king of the ACC Coastal or is someone else waiting in the weeds?
• Mike Norvell has had his Florida State Seminoles looking solid at times in 2022, is this the year that FSU tries to restore balance to the ACC Atlantic?
• Miami goes into each season with plenty of promise and a nice ranking and then seems to fade as the year goes on. Is it same as it ever was or does Mario Cristobal finally have the roster to make some noise?

Big Ten Conference

• New faces in the league with Matt Rhule, Luke Fickell and Ryan Walters taking over Nebraska, Wisconsin and Purdue respectively. All three coach teams in the Big Ten West, in the final year of division in the league. Who is in the best shape to bring home a divisional crown?
• Of course this league is about Michigan and Ohio State with the Wolverines getting the best of Ohio State in the past two seasons. What is Ohio State going to do differently this season to break the streak and what can Michigan do to stay ahead of the Buckeyes?
• James Franklin has had his Penn State team close for many years in the Big Ten, often having the Nittany Lions as the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league, depending on how Michigan has done that season. With a new quarterback and a returning stud linebacker in Abdul Carter, can the Nits finally breakthrough?
• Outgoing commissioner Kevin Warren took the Big Ten to the two-yard-line with its new television deal but it appears didn’t cross the goal line. Where do things stand now as his replacement has had to pick up the pieces. What does a future on FOX, NBC and CBS look like and a future without ABC/ESPN look like as well?
• Is the league really done with expansion? What would it take for more dominos to fall?

The post 2023 Conference Media Days will draw many questions appeared first on Saturday Glory.

Well, for 14 teams on the move, today is the day as the Big 12, AAC and C-USA all welcome new members to their ranks.

Fans of USC, UCLA, Texas, and Oklahoma will have to just wait another year until they make their much-anticipated moves to the Big Ten and SEC respectively.

Before Texas and OU can leave the Big 12, each will see four new teams join the Big 12 as UCF, Houston, BYU, and Cincinnati are all members of the conference starting today.

With several teams leaving the American, the AAC welcomes six programs to its ranks with Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA all making the move.

Conference USA is not going to be left out with the additions of Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State to the league.

A team that we are not talking about is San Diego State and while 2023 would not have been a year to move, the Aztecs are in difficult spot as it appeared that an announced move potentially to the Pac-12 was in the cards prior to July 1^st, but that is not the case now as the Pac-12 continues to work out details of a long-awaited media rights deal.

That does not mean the door is closed for San Diego State, but a move will be much more expensive as their exit fee doubles from 17 million to 34-million dollars to the Mountain West.

We will just have to wait and see what unfolds there along with what the Pac-12 may look like if a media rights deal does not check off all the boxes for all the league presidents with Colorado and others flirting with the idea of departure.

But for now, we know that 14 teams are officially home in their new leagues with the July 1^st start date, but we also know that movement is far from done as the constantly changing landscape of major college football continues to evolve.

The post College football moving day appeared first on Saturday Glory.

The Big 12 is going to have a one-year configuration with teams coming in and teams that are departing, not departing yet.

TCU made it all the way to the national championship game this past season and that is as far as anyone wants to talk about things as we all know how that game went.

Join us for the College Football Playbook podcast with Marc Givler and Tyler Shoemaker as they start their conference previews with the Big 12. There is plenty to talk about and even a little betting advice.

We also have a transcript but we have run it through a computer AI program so it may not be the cleanest of all transcripts but it will give you the highlights if you are looking for something specific in the show.

Marc Givler: Hello everyone. Welcome to the College Football Playbook podcast. I’m Marc Givler. Got Tyler Shoemaker with me as usual. We are what, maybe eight Saturdays I think away from college football starting. We are getting close to the season and so I thought this would be a good time to. Kind of go through and do some conference previews as we hit media days here in a few weeks.

Marc Givler: We’ll ha we’ll start to have the first conference Media days here in the middle of July. So we are right on the doorstep of football season. Tyler here has been working really hard on his spreadsheets for the season. The, the T shoe index is is complete at least for, at least for the preseason.

Marc Givler: And we’re gonna go over some of those numbers here. But first of all, I mean, we’re gonna do the big 12 in this episode. Did anything surprise you Tyler, when you went through and kind of punched your numbers in and, and they spit things back out at you?

Tyler Shoemaker: So I wasn’t surprised at the top, you know, to see Texas at number one in, in the conference.

Tyler Shoemaker: But what did surprise me was. They’re number one by almost eight full points, I mean of, you know, over a touchdown better than than number two. And then what really jumped out to me is you look at number 2, 3, 4, and five, and they’re separated by a point. So it’s, it’s extremely tight. I actually have the Big 12 as the number two overall conference in terms of average power rating because.

Tyler Shoemaker: I mean, WVU is ranked last, but they’re only a minus 0.8, so they’re basically one point worse than the FBS average team. Everybody else in the conference is above average. So I mean, it’s, it’s a very sturdy conference with only one kind of what I would consider true playoff, you know, national championship contender in Texas, but, but very solid conference from top to bottom.

Marc Givler: And just kind of refresh everyone’s memory. You know, you don’t have to give the whole formula away or anything like that, but, you know, this index you put together the TSI what all kind of goes into that and kind of how do you, how do you arrive at some of these numbers?

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, so the, the preseason numbers, you know, just generally are much harder because you don’t have any currencies data to go off of, obviously.

Tyler Shoemaker: So the, the challenge that I kind of put on myself for, for this upcoming season that I haven’t done in seasons past that I think has, has cost me and has cost other people like me that, that do models. I had to find a way. I really spent a lot of time thinking about how to quantify and reward teams that develop really well, even though they don’t recruit at an elite level.

Tyler Shoemaker: And conversely, Penalized teams like, I mean, even Texas, for example, who recruits excellently, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to a high power rating or, you know, or winning, winning football on the field. So I spent a lot of time, a lot of trial and error going through different formulas and variations of that, and I feel pretty comfortable with, with where I landed.

Tyler Shoemaker: And I’m excited to see kind of how it plays out because to, to get back to your original question, what goes into it is, How you’ve performed in, in recent seasons. According to the TSI model , I’ve gone back and, and modeled out the last, the last decade of football. I’m gonna go back even further, but for right now, I, I looked at the last decade, obviously looked at the past couple of seasons, way more closely.

Tyler Shoemaker: As well as, did you have any coaching changes? Kind of, I wanted to get an idea of how each coach and program has performed relative to their talent which is kind of a baseline expectation of how good your team should be. So I was able to quantify that and put that into into a number and that that’s how we landed on the preseason TSI right now.

Marc Givler: Yeah, I think what surprised you Also surprised me. I. Which is that I was surprised to see, not necessarily see Texas one, although maybe, but just the gap to me Texas has for all of its talent, has not been the dominant force in that conference that they probably should be where I guess was the strength here.

Marc Givler: How, how were they so far ahead? What kind of, where were the metrics? You know, that that gave them such a high power ranking.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, for, for starters, their, their four year weighted recruiting ranking, which is kind of how I look at your baseline talent. I, I look at the last four years weight, those according to kind of what I’ve learned is, is most important in terms of which classes are more important.

Tyler Shoemaker: So Texas right now is number seven in the country in terms of their recruiting rankings. So that’s, that’s a good baseline. But Oklahoma is right, is one spot below them in the rankings at at number eight. So the difference is Oklahoma, especially like last year, did not perform well relative to the talent on their team.

Tyler Shoemaker: Mostly because they were in year, year one, you know, of a, of a new regime. So I did give Oklahoma a little bit of benefit of the doubt going into this season. But Texas you know, they have steadily under Sark their, their correlation as I like to say, between their talent and their power rating has, has slowly crept up, even though they haven’t really met expectations publicly.

Tyler Shoemaker: Their, their numbers have incrementally been climbing, so I, I gave them a bit of a an optimistic projection here for 2023 based on those trends.

Marc Givler: Yeah, I think, I think it’s clear they have the most talent on paper. I mean, we can go down the, the line here, you know, starting at quarterback with, with Quinn Ewers and you know, they’ve got receivers. They’ve got a great tight end. So I, I’m. High on their talent level. It’s just, you know, I, I was kind of in the boat of like, when they hired Sark I was like, well, did you hire, you know, usually when you make a coaching hire, you are going from kind of one end to the other on the spectrum.

Marc Givler: Like you go from, you know, if you’ve got like this hard-nosed coach, you probably bring in like a. A more laid back guy and vice versa. If you got a laid back guy and you know, the culture kinda gets away, you bring in someone who’s gonna, you know, kick ass and take names. When they hired Sark , I thought they hired Tom Herman Light.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, that’s, that’s a, a very good comparison

Marc Givler: Like there’s a, anything bad you wanna say about Tom Herman, you can apply to Sark and I, I would argue Herman’s been a more successful coach especially as a head coach. So I, I’m still just not sold there. And I’m, I’m curious like, Did, did any of that factor in as far as their power rating?

Marc Givler: You kind of mentioned, you know, do they, do they overperform or underperform? I’m, I’m guessing there was an underperform that maybe held them back even more on this, cuz but you’re projecting ’em like 10 wins.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I mean they, they could have been higher certainly, and for all, for all the reasons you said, you know, is, is why they landed where they landed.

Tyler Shoemaker: But I will, you know, for people that aren’t familiar with, with. TSI or, or even like SP plus or FEI you don’t get rewarded necessarily for wins and you don’t get punished necessarily for losses, you know, depending on how you played in the, in those games. So I think the thing with Texas last year, when you just look at their wins and losses, it was like, man, they, they lost, you know, more games than you would think.

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I think they went eight and four last year. I don’t have in front of me, I think they went eight and four. But a lot of those games were, were very, very close. So the, the numbers within the, obviously like win loss is the most important in terms of on the field, but in terms of a power rating exercise and trying to be predictive moving forward, we kind of have to look between the lines and see like how those, how the teams actually performed.

Tyler Shoemaker: Because football is a game of, of variance and, and a lot of luck is involved. So the power rating aspect of it, Actually really liked Texas last year even. I mean, even after they were racking up their third and fourth losses. I mean, I, I remember they were still kind of around my top 10 and, and I was kind of catching some heat for it on Twitter.

Tyler Shoemaker: Like, well, how do you have this team in the top 10? Like, but that’s why, because it’s not just about wins and losses necessarily.

Marc Givler: And, you know, looking at their schedule here, I’ll just kind of reel it off home Rice. At Alabama Home Wyoming at Baylor Home, Kansas neutral, Oklahoma at Houston home, BYU home, Kansas State at tcu, at Iowa State Home Texas Tech.

Marc Givler: So, and you know, to be fair to you the Vegas. Over under, I’m seeing on win total for Texas is nine and a half and you’ve got ’em at nine seven. So you’re, you’re right there on that, on Vegas’s number. So here’s a question. You’re at nine seven, Vegas is at nine five. Is that too close to suggest a bet on the over, is that a stay away number for you?

Tyler Shoemaker: It is when you, when you just look at that, when you just look at like how the mask shakes out. I’ve got them at 9.7. I haven’t done this exercise, but what I would do if, you know, if you’re a Texas fan or, or someone that’s like, Hey, I think Texas is, is gonna go over this. I need some more data to, to kind of back up my opinion.

Tyler Shoemaker: What I would do is I would go to their schedule breakdown, which I have on my, on my TSI sheet, which you can find on Twitter.

Marc Givler: I would put it description box too.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I would, I would go to their schedule breakdown because what I’ve done is I’ve, I’ve done every, I’ve done a projection for every single game, for every team, all season with a win probability.

Tyler Shoemaker: And what I would do in that instance is I would look at it and say, okay, well how many of these games do they have a 75% chance or more of winning? And if that number gets you close to that, to that Vegas over under, then, then that’s what would push me, push me to, to make an over bet . But if it’s. If, if it’s, they’re gonna win a bunch of close games like that, that’s more of a, a roll the dice, I think.

Marc Givler: And, you know, I’m kind of like quickly looking at the schedule here and it does feel like it sets up decently well. Especially in conference like Kansas State’s a tough place to play. They don’t have to go there. BYU Is not a very easy place to play. They don’t have to go there. You know, Oklahoma’s always a neutral field.

Marc Givler: They lose to Texas Tech last year, but they’re getting ’em at home. You know, I, I maybe, you know, roadblocks at Iowa State’s, kind of a sneaky one there after you just were, after you just get through Kansas State and TCU back to back then you go to Iowa State. Matt Campbell for me is the Pat Fitzgerald of. The Big 12, whenever the expectations are a nine or 10 win team, they flop. And whenever nobody is talking about them and have kind of written the program off as, as not a contender anymore, they come out and win eight or nine games and they’re like, well, where’d I come from? So that could be a, a sneaky, tough game.

Marc Givler: As I look at this, as much as I like, am not like sold on Sark at this point. It, it. It’s a schedule that does set up really well, I think for the over as, as long as they don’t just completely, you know, trip over themselves. Because I think here’s the dirty little secret, and this will be a different podcast episode and get a bunch of people riled up probably and, and put myself at risk for being on freezing cold takes.

Marc Givler: But I don’t think Alabama’s gonna be very good this year by their standards. Like I don’t think. I could totally see Alabama losing three plus games this year, like three, maybe four. Worst case. But like I think Alabama’s gonna lose three games this year. You’re getting them early. Yes, it’s on the road, but they’ve got a whole bunch of stuff they’re breaking in.

Marc Givler: So for me, I think the, the Texas bet, the over under comes down to do they beat Alabama at the beginning? If they beat Alabama on the road at the beginning of the season? They’re in great shape, I think, to, to get the over for people.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. I, I just, I just took a quick peek while you were talking and basically looking at their win probabilities, there’s nine games where they’re 75% win probability or better.

Tyler Shoemaker: So it comes down to do they win one of TCU, Baylor or Alabama? If they win one of those games, they go over the win total. If they take care of business in those games where they’re 75% chance or better. So that’s kind of how you have to look at those things. Yeah.

Marc Givler: Let’s throw these back up here real quick.

Marc Givler: Kansas State, I thought was, was in line with what I would be thinking. I, I really like that program. I like the direction they’re going. You know, tcu, that’s kind of fascinating. Against maybe all odds. We kind of Yep. Kept saying they were gonna lose last year and we were wrong until the very end. But You play the national championship game and you’re picked fifth in your league.

Marc Givler: You know, you’re essentially picked fifth in your league, like by the slimmest of margins, but just behind a U C F team joining the league. Where did TCU falter for you as you kind of put that one together?

Tyler Shoemaker: TCU was, was very difficult because, They, their program hasn’t necessarily like overachieved from a talent standpoint, you know, relative to their talent.

Tyler Shoemaker: But last year was just so great and, and it was in the first year of a coach and Sonny Dykes, so I did give them, honestly, their rating could have been much lower based on. Where like taking like an average of how the last few years have gone for them in terms of their talent to power rating correlation.

Tyler Shoemaker: But because Sonny Dykes did such a good job, I went back and looked, he did such a good job in that, in that metric for me when he was at SMU and then it translated so well last year. That I’m, I gave TCU some benefit of the doubt here. I’ve got them 32nd in, in talent but with a, with a really high development rating.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I’m, I’m, this is basically a vote of confidence in Sonny Dykes to, you know, not necessarily replicate what he did last year. Cause I think that’d be very difficult. But, but can, can keep the ship, you know, kind of going in the right direction here.

Marc Givler: And here’s kind of a. Essentially a line graph of how the power ratings came out.

Marc Givler: You know, Oklahoma’s an interesting one too. They, they kind of bombed last year. It felt like they were starting to play a little better toward the end. How did you arrive at that one? And so it’s clear your model is projecting them to, to start back up on the upswing with a second year coach.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah again, I, I gave, I gave some benefit of the doubt to what I think Brent Venables can be once he gets it rolling there.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I did kind of go back and look at kinda what Oklahoma has been, you know, in its peak years, and then looked at what it did last year and then kind of found myself somewhere in the middle of that. Like, I don’t think they’re gonna be peak Oklahoma, you know, under Lincoln Riley this year, but I do think they’ll be better than last year.

Tyler Shoemaker: So I, I think they’re. Pretty appropriate, appropriately rated, even if it was, you know, one of the trickier ones for for me to, to formulate.

Marc Givler: How far has West Virginia fallen as a program in the last maybe decade ish? I mean, you got ’em last, you got all the. You got all the non-power five schools that moved into the league ahead of ’em.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. They’re for, for such a passionate fan base it’s, it’s probably gonna be, gonna be a rough season for them. I, I would imagine this season is the nail and the coffin of head coach Neil Brown.

Marc Givler: Yeah. Four wins would be a whole lot of not good. Another, another program like Oklahoma State, six wins.

Marc Givler: This was not that long ago that they were winning nine, 10 games every year.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yep.

Marc Givler: Gosh. So that, that was another one that kind of like, it didn’t really shock me in, in the, in the sense that, oh, I think it’s wrong. It just was like a, like wow. Yeah. Oklahoma State. Yeah. Stock down right now. Here’s what I’ll say about T C U, just kind of for me, from covering recruiting.

Marc Givler: They’ve got a lot more juice now with recruits than they did two years ago.

Tyler Shoemaker: That’s interesting.

Marc Givler: That’s a school that a lot of kids even in, in Texas are looking at. They just got a really, really good quarterback in 2025. Ty Hawkins was just committed there this past week. He’s a, like a, a, a mid to high four star type of kid.

Marc Givler: He’s a really good player. So. We’ll be interested to kinda go back and look at this in a couple of years cuz if, if they can actually sustain, maybe not what they did last year, but if they can sustain some level of, of moderate success, your talent level ratings are going to go up for them in the next couple of years because they are starting to recruit better.

Tyler Shoemaker: So how much. How much of that do you think is, is Sonny Dykes related? Cuz I, I feel like he’s just done a good job. I mean, like I said, even, even at SMU he, he got some talent there and they, and they won a lot of games.

Marc Givler: Yeah. I think a lot of it is Sonny Dykes related. Just, he, it’s, it’s a fun offense I think for a lot of guys to, to play in.

Marc Givler: And of course like the, the playoff run last year is huge, but that’s also. That also goes back to Sonny Dykes who got them. Right, right. Yeah, it’s, it’s definitely been a huge uptick. He’s kind of a little more relatable. You know, Gary Patterson I thought was a good coach, but I don’t know that he was a particularly dynamic recruiter. He’s kind of a, a Chip Kelly type of head coach in that regard, where you better have really good as recruiters around them as assistants. So that was, I. You know, Dykes I think is a little more in the, in the, the front, you know, kind of leading the pack when it comes to recruiting.

Marc Givler: So yeah, I’ve got TCU stock up, I’ve got Kansas State stock up it. This is a big year for Oklahoma. I, I didn’t love the fit. And it kind of goes back to what I talked about kind of at the beginning of the show a little bit, is you went from like offensive, like. Guru, you know, high flying offense you know, a little bit of Hollywood, a little bit of, you know, I don’t know, flash, and you go from that.

Marc Givler: To, you know, career defensive coordinator, old school guy, toughness. And there’s nothing necessarily wrong with that, but that is quite a transition to make. And sometimes it, it sometimes is best, even if the personalities are different, to maybe keep a similar. Face of the program. So maybe go and try and find the next Lincoln Riley instead of kind of going polar opposite.

Marc Givler: So I’m gonna be fascinated that one, I, I was a kind of a strange hire to me at the time, much like Texas was to me for different reasons. But you know, We’ll see how it goes. You know, Texas was, was firing a coach, Oklahoma was losing a coach. It’s kind of a different scenario, I think, I think when you’re, when you’re firing a coach, I think it, it does make a little more sense to kind of go in a different direction than what you had been going in, obviously.

Marc Givler: But when you’re, when you lose a coach, cuz he decides to leave and he’s been very successful. It, it is not usually, it doesn’t seem bad to me to maybe kind of stick with that. And, and quite frankly, I, I just. In today’s landscape with offense. I, I do think having an offensive minded head coach is, is a, is a general advantage, but yep.

Marc Givler: Now Kirby Smart’s gonna laugh at me and Nick Saban’s gonna laugh at me. But I think if you’re, if you’re at, you know, if you’re at Oklahoma, if you’re in the, the Big 12, if you’re in basically any other league than maybe the SEC which is. Somehow still able to survive on kind of being a defense first league.

Marc Givler: Although even that’s changing too with, with, we’ve seen Nick Saban kind of wake up on, on offensive philosophy, philosophy and things like that. And Georgia last year was, was a much better offense. Yep. But you know, I don’t know. I, I think there’s, it was a weird hire, let’s just put it that way.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yep.

Marc Givler: Anything else here as far as, you know, tidbits? I mean, you’ve got, so you got UCF up there. That’s gonna be an interesting one to me. What, what, how did you arrive at that and was, was it difficult with the, with the league change?

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. It, it was I’m looking, I’ve got them 53rd in, in the country, in, in talent, but I mean, they’ve, they’ve just performed so well, even relative to that, you know, looking back several years, so.

Tyler Shoemaker: They, they’re kind of a program that gets the benefit of the doubt until they prove that they don’t deserve it. And again, what, you know, one thing that really sets the TSI model apart from others is I’m much more quickly adapting to the on-field results than you know, other high profile models.

Tyler Shoemaker: Because basically, if some of these other models say that you’re a, a bad team in the preseason, like that’s kind of a death sentence for the se for their, for their season rating because they keep those preseason ratings in there the whole season, you know, to some extent. Whereas with mine, I, I generally will have mine completely phased out by, by the middle of the season.

Marc Givler: I’m trying. So here’s the, here’s the Vegas total, and this could be very different at different places, but Vegas has over six and a half wins, but it is – 170 . For UCF . So it, do you, would you endorse the over here or is this something maybe to stay away from just because of the league change and talent?

Marc Givler: Yeah, well, possible talent discrepancies.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, yeah, those, those reasons. And also, like, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t lay 170 juice to, to bet the over here. I honestly, I would just, If, if you can, some books will let you, like, buy a half a game . If you can do, do that I’m sorry, not buy, but, but basically sell a half a game and just take the higher number here and, and get better odds.

Tyler Shoemaker: Or just wait. I mean, if it’s juiced at 170 the number’s probably gonna go up at some point, so I would just wait until you catch a seven at, at, you know, – 110 or – 120 or something like that. More, more standard odds there. But yeah, I would, I would be interested in an UCF over.

Marc Givler: Do you have a favorite play as far as over under win totals in this conference? Is there a, is there one that jumps out to you?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, not off the top of my head. Let me, let me get back to you on that one.

Marc Givler: Yeah, no, no problem. I, man, I’m always talking myself into Texas. I. That’s kind of an interesting one for me, just cuz again, I’m, I’m a little skeptical of Alabama this year.

Marc Givler: I, I, I just, man, I don’t know, they lost so much and I don’t like what they did in the portal with the quarterback. I don’t think they solved their quarterback issue. So that’s gonna be, Ty that’s gonna be an interesting one for me. Let me see what Kansas State is here. For over under wind total, cuz that’s one.

Marc Givler: I think if I can get the right number, I’d be interested in playing. That one looks like seven and a half, but you’re given like 188 juice. Let me see what let me see what bet Online’s saying. There’s a, I should have brought this up a minute ago and then I could have had it ready.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I see, I see a WVU five and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: I would, I would definitely be interested in an in under there. Again, again, pretty much with, with season wind totals, I’m not gonna lay any more than like 140 or 150 juice probably.

Marc Givler: Okay. That’s a good rule of thumb

Tyler Shoemaker: so I would just keep that in mind, like I’m, I’m not gonna lay 170 or 180. I’ll just wait for, for the number to move, but yeah, I would be interested in a, in a WVU under five and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: Again, you can get u UCF over I like Houston is, is one of the, the more valuable o over bets on, on the board for, for any conference, let alone the, the big 12. So there, yeah, there’s a, there’s a couple of plays here that that I probably will invest in here before the end of the summer.

Marc Givler: And it’s interesting cause I just look at BET online and they’ve got Kansas State at over under eight is is eight and a half and over is + 120 juice.

Marc Givler: So, so under is – 150 and they come out of the gates with Southeast Missouri and Troy. Then they’re at Missouri home, UCF at Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech. So, They get TCU at home. They get Houston and Baylor at home. They get Iowa State at home. Tough Road one at Kansas. Looks like they don’t play Oklahoma.

Marc Givler: I, I like Kansas. I, I think there’s value there + 120 . I think there’s actually some value there in Kansas State over eight and a half.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, with, with, with the projection so close, getting, getting positive money, I would, I would’ve to plug it in. I’ve got a calculator where you can kind of see what, what that would equate to in terms of like an actual number.

Tyler Shoemaker: But yeah, that, that’s probably right in the neighborhood.

Marc Givler: Yeah. All right. We see what your numbers are projecting here, but you know, you don’t always have to follow the numbers necessarily. Who is your pick to win the big 12 this year?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I do think it’s gonna be Texas. I, I, I think, I think this is probably the year that they kind of put it together.

Tyler Shoemaker: Second, second year. Quinn, Ewers at quarterback. I, if it’s not now, then like, when is it ever gonna be? So I think, I think this has to be their year. So I’m, I’m gonna, I’m gonna go with Longhorns.

Marc Givler: I have to begrudgingly agree. I, what do you do if they go eight and four this year? If you’re Texas

Tyler Shoemaker: fire your coach for starters.

Marc Givler: Are you pulling the plug again on that?

Tyler Shoemaker: I, I, I think you have to

Marc Givler: another coaching search.

Tyler Shoemaker: I think you have to, I don’t know. I don’t know how you, you run it back knowing. I, Quinn, Ewers is probably entering the draft this year. Like, I don’t, I don’t,

Marc Givler: Ja’Tavion Sanders might be a first round pick.

Marc Givler: at Tight end. Xavier worthy might be a first round pick a receiver.

Tyler Shoemaker: Mean, I know you got, you got Arch Manning ,

Marc Givler: you have more athletes, on defense than these other teams you’re playing for the most part. Other than like Alabama. I mean,

Tyler Shoemaker: mean even, even, I mean, I think eight and four definitely is, is a fireable season nine and three.

Tyler Shoemaker: Which, which means you’re, so that’s like you’re probably losing Alabama and then you lose two conference games and, and you’re not even in the conference championship game. Like, I, I think that’s a fireable offense with, with the expectations that they’ve just continuously had every preseason. Like if you, if you don’t, if you don’t go 10 and two or better, so, you know, one conference loss will say a lost Bama.

Tyler Shoemaker: Like, I think, I think that’s the floor for, for Sark to keep his job. If, if I was running things anyway.

Marc Givler: And we’ll kind of wrap it up with one more hot seat conversation like Matt Campbell. That’s an interesting one. They’ve, it feels like they’ve plateaued, maybe even taken a step or two back. What do you do if he goes like five and seven this year?

Marc Givler: And loses to Iowa and you know, and it’s just a mess. I mean, it’s just such a conundrum for me because I thought they moved on from Paul Rhodes awfully quick back in the day. And you know, I think it’s hard to win there, but I know. Should his seat be warm or is he just, you know, Bringing a knife to a gunfight every weekend.

Marc Givler: And, and you, you, you give him the Pat Fitzgerald treatment, you know, at Northwestern, where, you know you’re gonna eat a four and eight every now and then, but he’s gonna overachieve as well at certain points.

Tyler Shoemaker: Well, here’s the thing I just looked. This is gonna be Iowa State’s most talented team. I’m looking back to, to

Marc Givler: by the rankings,

Tyler Shoemaker: right so this is gonna be their most talented team. Of the last five years. So there’s, there’s no reason they should go five and seven. So I think, I think if that happens, it’s hard because they’re, the program expectations just are not what they are at, like, like at Texas. So maybe they do have their Pat Fitzgerald and they’re just gonna let him have as many losing seasons as he wants cuz he had a couple good ones.

Tyler Shoemaker: But there, there’s no reason that if he can have really good seasons, you know, that he’s had. You know, in, in recent years that he can’t do that again this year with, with more talent. So I don’t, I don’t think he would necessarily be on the hot seat, but I, I personally would not be on the Matt Campbell bandwagon.

Tyler Shoemaker: If he has another bad year,

Marc Givler: guess what? He over under is in Vegas right now for wins for Iowa State.

Tyler Shoemaker: I don’t have it in front of me. What is it? Yeah, guess six and a half,

Marc Givler: five and a half. I just looked it up before I even said anything about going five and seven or after I said about going five and seven. I’m like, let me look and see what Vegas thinks. They’re five and a half now. It’s – 140 for the over.

Marc Givler: What’s your limit on juice for these bets? Cause you said you wouldn’t, you would never do – 170, is – 140 . Are we getting close to where, especially if you think, you know, six and six. That’s all I gotta do is go six and six, win half their games.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah, I mean, it would, it would definitely depend on the edge.

Tyler Shoemaker: So in this instance their over under is five and a half. I’ve got ’em at, at 6.7.

Marc Givler: So you’ve got ’em way over.

Tyler Shoemaker: Yeah. So I and and what’d you say the juice was on this one? 140?

Tyler Shoemaker: I would, I wouldn’t like bet my mortgage on it or anything, which we’ll talk about bankroll management at some point this season.

Tyler Shoemaker: But you know, I, I would maybe throw something small on it. Sure.

Marc Givler: You could probably what? Bump it up to six, but then it’s like, eh,

Marc Givler: you’re probably, yeah.

Tyler Shoemaker: Honestly, as six. As six, you’re probably getting, I don’t know, maybe even odds at that. Yeah.

Tyler Shoemaker: At that point. So then they gotta

Marc Givler: go, you know, obviously they gotta go seven and five at that point, or, yeah, not you can push.

Marc Givler: I mean, they play gosh. They play what? Northern Iowa here. They’re at Ohio U, Kansas, at home. At Cincinnati, they got TCU U in Texas. They got Oklahoma. The conference schedule’s not easy. They didn’t dodge a lot of bullets there at Baylor, at B Y U at Kansas State. Those are tough road environments at Oklahoma.

Marc Givler: Oh buddy, Matt Campbell. So Matt Campbell and, and Sark . Big years for those two. I’m sure we’ll be talking more about the Big 12 and weekly odds and things like that, but just kind of wanted to run over some preseason numbers, give some of our thoughts on what the. What the TSI is telling us, and just kind of match that up with maybe what our eyeballs and brains are trying to, to tell us.

Marc Givler: So we’ll be back with another episode here. We’re gonna do, like I said, we’re gonna do all five power conferences here over the next week or so. And then I think we’ll try and sneak in maybe like a a group, group of five or whatever episode and just. That’ll probably be a little disjointed, but we’ll just maybe pick some, some teams we like and some, some bets we like for that.

Marc Givler: But appreciate everyone watching and listening. Like I said, link the description box to the T-Shoe index and the schedule projections. So if you’re looking to bet on the over unders for win totals this season Tyler’s got a, a model that. Projects out everything, and you can kind of look at it and, and see and help, you know, maybe make some decisions for you.

Marc Givler: So appreciate everyone listening. We will catch you again very soon. I think we’re doing SEC up next, so stay tuned for that one.

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